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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 15 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(4:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 29 for 0 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model