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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 30

New York Giants 21 – Cleveland Browns 15

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 34-G.Joseph 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.94 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model