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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 15 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 19-C.Tillman.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -0.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model