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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 57

New York Giants 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 1-M.Nabers right end ran ob at NYG 45 for 2 yards (33-R.Hickman).

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.95 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model