4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to PHI 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP