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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PHI
26.6%
NO
73.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (NO): +0.198 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
NO 30
Projected margin: NO by 9 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PHI

A.J. Brown WR Out Hamstring
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Questionable Foot

NO

Khalen Saunders DT Out Calf
Landon Young T Questionable Foot
A.T. Perry WR Questionable Illness
Will Harris S Questionable Shin
Taysom Hill TE Questionable Chest
D'Marco Jackson LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 15
–
NO 12

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:53 FG NO (6:53) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. PHI 0 – NO 3
  • Q4 13:27 TD PHI (13:27) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NO 3
  • Q4 09:52 FG NO (9:52) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. PHI 7 – NO 6
  • Q4 02:10 TD NO (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – NO 12
  • Q4 01:05 TD PHI (1:05) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NO 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 14 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (6:53) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:44) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-49-R.Lovato. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 36 for no gain (87-J.Stoll).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:59) 43-M.Hayball punts 44 yards to PHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (14:02) 43-M.Hayball punts 52 yards to PHI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 46%

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to NO 40 for 6 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 61%

    (4:02) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to PHI 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (:14) 26-S.Barkley left end to NO 15 for no gain (20-P.Werner, 99-C.Young).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 75%

    (8:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at NO 40 for -6 yards (90-B.Bresee).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 56%

    (5:21) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to PHI 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 15 for 6 yards (98-P.Turner, 55-I.Foskey).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (1:35) 10-B.Mann punt is BLOCKED by 48-J.Gray, Center-49-R.Lovato, RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at PHI 36. 31-J.Howden to PHI 27 for 9 yards (3-N.Smith).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left tackle to PHI 18 for no gain (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (9:52) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 56%

    (6:47) 4-J.Elliott 60 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.