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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 26-S.Barkley left end to NO 15 for no gain (20-P.Werner, 99-C.Young).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.45 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP