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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 43-M.Hayball punts 33 yards to PHI 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 15 for 6 yards (98-P.Turner, 55-I.Foskey).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP