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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model