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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 19-B.Grupe 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model