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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-49-R.Lovato. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 36 for no gain (87-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model