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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 43-M.Hayball punts 52 yards to PHI 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP