4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to LA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP