Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- LA offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- LA defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.108 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.235 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
SF
LA
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:17 TD SF (11:17) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – LA 0
- Q1 01:53 TD SF (1:53) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – LA 0
- Q2 01:15 TD LA (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – LA 6
- Q3 07:07 TD SF (7:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – LA 7
- Q3 03:56 TD LA (3:56) 23-K.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – LA 13
- Q4 12:00 FG SF (12:00) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. SF 24 – LA 14
- Q4 06:18 FG LA (6:18) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 24 – LA 17
- Q4 01:54 TD LA (1:54) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 24 – LA 23
- Q4 00:05 FG LA (:05) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SF 24 – LA 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 63%
(9:49) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-J.Cowing pushed ob at SF 23 for 9 yards (31-N.Hampton).
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 52%
(9:02) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to LA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-R.Rivers. 20-R.Rivers left end to 50 for 7 yards (18-C.Conley). SF-53-D.Winters was injured during the play.
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Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%
(13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-83-N.Kalinic.
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 94%
(14:52) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to LA 16 for 2 yards (55-B.Fiske).
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Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%
(12:00) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%
(7:58) 23-K.Williams right guard to SF 8 for 3 yards (7-C.Ward).
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Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(6:18) 16-J.Karty 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 37 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 68%
(2:48) 63-N.Zakelj and 76-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:56) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at 50 for 38 yards (3-M.Wishnowsky).