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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-R.Rivers. 20-R.Rivers left end to 50 for 7 yards (18-C.Conley). SF-53-D.Winters was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model