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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to SF 9, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-83-N.Kalinic.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP