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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 63-N.Zakelj and 76-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model