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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model