Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.218 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
WAS
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:43 TD CIN (11:43) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – CIN 6
- Q1 05:28 TD WAS (5:28) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – CIN 7
- Q2 11:38 TD WAS (11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – CIN 7
- Q2 05:28 FG CIN (5:28) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. WAS 14 – CIN 10
- Q2 02:08 TD WAS (2:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – CIN 10
- Q2 00:26 FG CIN (:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. WAS 21 – CIN 13
- Q3 09:58 TD WAS (9:58) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 73-T.Scott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – CIN 13
- Q3 03:07 TD CIN (3:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 28 – CIN 19
- Q4 11:35 FG WAS (11:35) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 31 – CIN 20
- Q4 09:47 TD CIN (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 31 – CIN 26
- Q4 02:15 TD WAS (2:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-G.Stone]. WAS 37 – CIN 26
- Q4 00:43 TD CIN (:43) (Shotgun) 31-Z.Moss right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 38 – CIN 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 76%
(7:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 12-L.McCaffrey pushed ob at CIN 2 for 30 yards (22-G.Stone).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 80%
(14:56) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(5:28) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%
(:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%
(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 74%
(13:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle to CIN 29 for 4 yards (23-D.Hill, 55-L.Wilson).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%
(11:35) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 39 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 60%
(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CIN 30 for 9 yards (24-V.Bell).