4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

2-1 HC Dan Quinn
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

0-3 HC Zac Taylor
Monday 2024-09-23 · 20:15 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

WAS
27.5%
CIN
72.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.218 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19 12–26
–
CIN 27 20–34
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

WAS

Clelin Ferrell DE Out Knee
Emmanuel Forbes CB Questionable Thumb

CIN

Tanner Hudson TE Out Knee
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Hamstring
B.J. Hill DT Doubtful Hamstring
Vonn Bell S Questionable Back
Kris Jenkins DT Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 38
–
CIN 33

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:43 TD CIN (11:43) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 05:28 TD WAS (5:28) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – CIN 7
  • Q2 11:38 TD WAS (11:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – CIN 7
  • Q2 05:28 FG CIN (5:28) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. WAS 14 – CIN 10
  • Q2 02:08 TD WAS (2:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:26 FG CIN (:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. WAS 21 – CIN 13
  • Q3 09:58 TD WAS (9:58) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 73-T.Scott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – CIN 13
  • Q3 03:07 TD CIN (3:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 28 – CIN 19
  • Q4 11:35 FG WAS (11:35) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 31 – CIN 20
  • Q4 09:47 TD CIN (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 31 – CIN 26
  • Q4 02:15 TD WAS (2:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-G.Stone]. WAS 37 – CIN 26
  • Q4 00:43 TD CIN (:43) (Shotgun) 31-Z.Moss right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 38 – CIN 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 76%

    (7:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 12-L.McCaffrey pushed ob at CIN 2 for 30 yards (22-G.Stone).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 80%

    (14:56) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:28) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 74%

    (13:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle to CIN 29 for 4 yards (23-D.Hill, 55-L.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (11:35) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 60%

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CIN 30 for 9 yards (24-V.Bell).

    See the full breakdown →