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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(:26) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.61 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model