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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model