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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 33

Washington Commanders 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(13:35) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right tackle to CIN 29 for 4 yards (23-D.Hill, 55-L.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model