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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 24

Washington Commanders 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model