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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 32

Washington Commanders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 12-L.McCaffrey pushed ob at CIN 2 for 30 yards (22-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model