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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model