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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP