Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- QB edge to LV: Gardner Minshew (LV) -0.011 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.158 EPA/dropback
- LV offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LV defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
CLE
LV
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:41 TD CLE (5:41) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 86-B.Whiteheart for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – LV 0
- Q1 00:40 FG CLE (:40) 7-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – LV 0
- Q2 09:55 TD LV (9:55) (Shotgun) 11-T.Tucker left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – LV 6
- Q2 02:56 FG LV (2:56) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. CLE 10 – LV 10
- Q3 11:32 FG LV (11:32) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. CLE 10 – LV 13
- Q3 05:30 TD LV (5:30) (No Huddle) 19-D.Turner left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – LV 19
- Q4 15:00 TD CLE (15:00) 3-Z.White right tackle to LV 30 for -3 yards (57-I.McGuire). FUMBLES (57-I.McGuire), touched at LV 29, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at LV 25. 12-R.McLeod for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – LV 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 37Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%
(:40) 7-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to LV 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 32-T.McAllister to LV 21 for 10 yards (57-I.McGuire).
-
Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%
(2:56) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 61%
(1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to LV 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-T.Brown.
-
Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%
(11:32) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:00) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 58%
(8:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EPp(convert) 52%
(6:31) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to CLE 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 84 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
-
Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:29) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to CLE 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 31 for 13 yards (59-L.Masterson).
-
Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 9 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%
(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).