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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to CLE 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.24 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP