Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Cleveland Browns 16

(3:29) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to CLE 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 31 for 13 yards (59-L.Masterson).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model