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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at LV 19 for -10 yards (49-C.Snowden).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.12 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP