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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.29 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP