4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 22

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 34-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model