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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Thursday 2024-09-26 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DAL
53.3%
NYG
46.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.141 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.116 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DAL

Markquese Bell S Doubtful Ankle
Caelen Carson CB Doubtful Shoulder

NYG

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Calf
Andru Phillips CB Out Calf
Darius Slayton WR Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
NYG 15

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:07 FG NYG (9:07) 34-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 0 – NYG 3
  • Q1 02:13 TD DAL (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 3
  • Q2 11:14 FG NYG (11:14) 34-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 7 – NYG 6
  • Q2 09:25 TD DAL (9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 13 – NYG 6
  • Q2 01:10 FG NYG (1:10) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. Penalty on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined. DAL 14 – NYG 9
  • Q3 08:44 FG NYG (8:44) 34-G.Joseph 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 14 – NYG 12
  • Q3 05:11 FG DAL (5:11) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 17 – NYG 12
  • Q4 11:16 FG NYG (11:16) 34-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. DAL 17 – NYG 15
  • Q4 06:59 FG DAL (6:59) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: NYG-98-D.Davidson has returned to the game. DAL 20 – NYG 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:53) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 73%

    (9:07) 34-G.Joseph 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (11:14) 34-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:59) (No Huddle) 40-H.Luepke left end to DAL 45 for 6 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 31%

    (5:39) 26-D.Singletary left end ran ob at DAL 48 for 3 yards (13-D.Overshown). DAL-13-D.Overshown was injured during the play.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (1:10) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. Penalty on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 17 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:14) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-89-B.Spann-Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (8:44) 34-G.Joseph 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 54%

    (5:11) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DAL 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:47) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NYG 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 48 for 22 yards (35-M.Liufau; 40-H.Luepke).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 46%

    (13:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 1-M.Nabers to DAL 37 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 14 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (11:16) 34-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (6:59) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: NYG-98-D.Davidson has returned to the game.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:32) 26-D.Singletary right guard to NYG 41 for 2 yards (50-E.Kendricks; 97-O.Odighizuwa).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 1-M.Nabers (7-T.Diggs). NYG-1-M.Nabers was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (:32) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.