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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 51

New York Giants 6 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 26-D.Singletary left end ran ob at DAL 48 for 3 yards (13-D.Overshown). DAL-13-D.Overshown was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model