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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 20

New York Giants 6 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. Penalty on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model