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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 14 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model