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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 62

New York Giants 12 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DAL 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model