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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 61

New York Giants 15 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 26-D.Singletary right guard to NYG 41 for 2 yards (50-E.Kendricks; 97-O.Odighizuwa).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model