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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 55

New York Giants 15 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 1-M.Nabers (7-T.Diggs). NYG-1-M.Nabers was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model