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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(:32) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +0.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model