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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 5

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP