DEN @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton

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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh

Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

DEN

26.6%

NYJ

73.4%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DEN offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
NYJ defense: -0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Bo Nix (DEN): -0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts
DEN defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
NYJ on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18

–

NYJ 25

Projected margin: NYJ by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DEN

J.L. Skinner S Out Ankle

NYJ

Morgan Moses T Out Knee

C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10

–

NYJ 9

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 14:54 FG NYJ (14:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DEN 0 – NYJ 3
Q2 00:02 FG NYJ (:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DEN 0 – NYJ 6
Q3 03:13 TD DEN (3:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – NYJ 6
Q4 13:38 FG NYJ (13:38) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DEN 7 – NYJ 9
Q4 08:59 FG DEN (8:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 99

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(11:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to DEN 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 48 for 5 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball).
Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 23%

(9:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(8:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to DEN 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(6:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to NYJ 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke).
Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(4:01) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to DEN 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-19-I.Charles. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYJ-19-I.Charles, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 32.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(14:54) 9-G.Zuerlein 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(13:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to NYJ 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 24 for 10 yards (48-M.Fraboni).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(10:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to DEN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 44

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 44%

(7:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to NYJ 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 15 for no gain (1-T.Smith).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP

p(convert) 69%

(4:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NYJ 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 27 for 11 yards (20-M.Burton; 26-D.Key).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

(:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 32%

(12:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to NYJ 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 12.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(8:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to DEN 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

(13:38) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 80%

(8:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 49 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

(4:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(2:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NYJ 31, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 33 for 2 yards (43-K.Smith).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 35 for -10 yards (6-P.Locke).
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 74%

(1:31) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 74%

(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.