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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 62

New York Jets 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP