Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 64

New York Jets 6 – Denver Broncos 0

(8:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to DEN 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model