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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 22

New York Jets 6 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 9-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model