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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 29

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.17 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model