Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 99

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(11:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to DEN 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-M.Mims to DEN 48 for 5 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball).

The Three Options

GO -3.94 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.35 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 99, worth -6.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model