Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 55

New York Jets 9 – Denver Broncos 10

(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 35 for -10 yards (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.78 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model