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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 32

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model