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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 32

New York Jets 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model